BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 4 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card at Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some solid contests considering this is a free card and I look forward to chasing the GPPs. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my very first chair into it a few weeks back and I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and throw a small number of entries at that $25k decoration, and then I will likely take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There really aren’t any cash game locks this week for me but I went with Yana because I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so I like the ground she brings to the table. In addition, I think she wins the fight and I believe she will be the fighter heading for takedowns. I don’t understand how high her ceiling is but in money games it does not really matter a lot since we do not need to strike 1st place in a double-up. I would anticipate about 10x from Yana in a choice win and I will take that all day in my money games.
GPP play of the week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka struggles tend to score highly because there are a great deal of scrambles and all the grappling advances really add up. I anticipate this to be a really fun battle, but it should be Smolka that’s the one going for the takedowns. I’m always looking for a minimum of 10x in my fighters and at $8.3k I would be shocked if Smolka didn’t get that with a win. The lowest he has ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he’s scored 162 vs Nguyen and he’s got a 61-point loss to Elliott that’s more DK points than Schnell’s win over Beltran. I love Smolka as a GPP drama here and if he wins I’d anticipate near 100 DK points.
Play of the week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
To get a fight I hope to stay standing, I’ve quite a lot of curiosity in this fight. I think it will be an action-packed fight and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is also the mid-range fight of the week, so that I think a KO from guy would have a good chance to put them on the perfect lineup. I like it even more because I’m picking the underdog to get the knockout and I expect Millender to function as higher owned fighter. I’ll have this fight in more than half of my lineups, but I shall most likely have at least twice the ownership on dos Santos over Millender. I think it’s a better GPP struggle than it’s for cash games, but I believe dos Santos is currently in play for money since he is an underdog and I have him winning. I don’t feel confident in many underdogs this week, but I’ll have a fantastic amount of exposure to dos Santos.
Fade of the week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will require a finish at the salary and I don’t see that happening. If he wins a clear 30-27 conclusion, then he probably scores mid 70’s and in his price tag that won’t win anybody a GPP. I don’t believe he goes for takedowns in this matchup and I believe he uses his wrestling to help keep the fight standing. Even if he can move for takedowns then I don’t see him filing Moraes. So, it needs to be a KO out of him to cover off that wages and I am not willing to take that risk with my cash. That’s why he is my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I’m 61-37 for +209.69 (+$20,969) because May 19th on Premium Plays)

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