This weekend we’ve got a 13-fight card then extended 3-week break. I’m excited to have UFC back and I am prepared to win some cash on Saturday. The card will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters creating their UFC debut so it’s always nice when you’re already acquainted with the fighters on the card. Since this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings contests aren’t the best, but there’s still a lot of cash to be won. I will personally be pursuing the large $15k top prize at the $8 GPP in addition to the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, largely H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at these huge prizes. Here are a few plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is how I will be starting my money lineup. I can put in Vick and Gaethje then figure the rest out from there. Any fight Gaethje is in is filled with action and his three UFC battles have been Fight Of The Year kind fights. Those kinds of fights are great for DraftKings. Especially cash games since we can lock in a win and receive all the points in the very best fight on the card. Usually 4 wins will get the business done in cash games and we’ll get over 100 points on this fight. So, with that triumph locked in, we simply have to find 3 others we feel great about.
GPP play of this week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It’s challenging to want to pay $9.5k for a guy like Barberena when you can just pay an extra $200 to find a -1000 preferred in Anders. However, I believe that’s what most folks will do and that’s what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I think we will get him at a somewhat lower possession due to his large salary, and he’s got an excellent shot at obtaining a 1st round win. If he can find a 1st round KO afterward he will have at least 100 points so he’ll pay off that large salary. If you think Ellenberger is totally faded, then I believe that you should get some Barberena in your lineups. His ITD line is -170 and Ellenberger resembles he is a shell of his older self. I think Barberena does pick up an end in this struggle so I will throw him in some GPPs and expect he’s beneath possessed.
Underdog drama of this week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is merely the easy worth play of this week. Presently, Fili is your betting popular at -115 over Michael Johnson in +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I really like taking that value when it’s available so I presume he’s in play in all formats. He’ll be popular in tournaments together with the value we are getting on himbut I am willing to consume that chalk and that I do not want to get burned by completely fading that value. I do think this is the toughest fight on the card to phone, but if Fili keeps using his wrestling I think he will have a fantastic chance at winning this battle. If the fight stays standing for 15-minutes, I would favor MJ but not by a good deal. At $7.5k we don’t need a massive score from Fili so any win will probably do the trick. I am not going to pass on this respect and I think he’s the simple underdog of the week on DK.
Fade of this week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This may just be my personal bias but I am not going to possess Drew Dober in some of my primary ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has just proceeded for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he’s mainly just seeking to strike. I believe that this will be a striking battle as well and I think it’s going to be nearer than the odds signal. At $8.9k I believe we will need a finish from him to end up on the winning GPP lineup and that I don’t see that happening. If you do think Dober can find a KO, then you ought to be playing him. I will just be paying up someplace since I’m not sure he could get that finish and that I would not be shocked if he even lost the struggle. I will say I never seem to utilize Dober at DraftKings, so I could get burnt again but I will stick with my Dober evaporate and he will be my fade of this week to get UFC Lincoln.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on every fight, my private strategies & recommendations, and also my pick outlook for every single fight then you can discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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