This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card at Vegas. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to acquire a lot of cash from this week and I can’t wait to chase those huge prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only tournament for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I won my very first seat into it a week and will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at that $50k prize, and then I will likely have a couple shots in the Qualifier. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for my cash game lineup this week in his -800 betting line. I’ll take that free square foot and proceed. He must dominate this fight and he can complete it on the feet or the floor. I expect him to score more than 100-points and I am perfectly fine with paying $9.6k for that. When I’m making lineups, I would like to try and get at least 10x from every fighter. With Jones being 9.6k, I want at least 96 points . That is the way I look at it. If this was a 3-round battle and I did not think Jones could find a finish then maybe he just scores 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I would not need that. Nonetheless, this is a potential 5-round battle, and that I do expect Jones to dominate, so that cost is fine with me. For GPPs, I think you can get away from Jon Jones because he will be quite highly owned. If he’s 50% owned by the area and he simply scores 85-90 DK points, then will pretty much kill half the field because that would not be enough points to put him that $50k lineup.
GPP drama of the week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this battle it’ll be out of his wrestling. He is one of the best wrestlers in MMA history and now he’s finally getting an opportunity from the UFC after controlling every business he has been in. He won’t want to strike for long against Robbie Lawler, therefore I expect him to shoot for takedowns straight away and string wrestle till he gets them. Once he gets top control there is not going to become a lot Robbie can perform on the floor and he must take a beating as long as it’s on the mat. On DraftKings, every takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points to get a significant strike. A guy like Askren can go out there and receive 10 takedowns at 15-minutes and that’s what makes him a great play if he can think of the victory.
Underdog play of the week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This really isn’t the Diego Sanchez of older, but I believe he has what it takes to conquer Mickey Gall. On the feet, the quantity from Sanchez should acquire it there as long as he does not get knocked out. The chin of Diego is what I fear about most these days, but Gall is not much of a striker and that I really don’t see him becoming knockout. In addition, I don’t understand that Gall can get takedowns, and that I think Sanchez would be the likely man to be on top if the struggle hits the ground. There is A submission the best chance at a win of Gall and Sanchez hasn’t been submitted. We have to have underdogs in our DK lineups and also at $7.1k Diego enables us to cover up for those guys like Jon Jones or Ben Askren. If he could grind out a decision triumph here I presume he can get 10x that salary and if we could get a win against him in that inexpensive salary, I think we will be in line for this $50k win if we hit our other five spots.
Fade of this week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might end up using every fighter since I am making so many lineups this week, however Anthony Smith is the guy I want the very least of. I try to get a favored for you guys as my fade of the week but I do not think there are any must fade favorites this week. Rather, I am going with the 1 fighter I do not think stands a chance. I think a fluke KO is the only path to success for Smith and he really does not possess the one punch/kick power it might take to pull off. I would be amazed when Smith pulled off the upset this week and when I had been making 20 or less lineups, he would be a simple fade.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 58-37 for +177.62un (+$17,762) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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